Montoya’s Monday Mailbag By Gabriel Montoya (Jan 5, 2009) Photo © German Villasenor Send this page to friend Give us your feedback Read on for questions about the state of the heavies, what division will be on fire in 2009, and thoughts on Margarito/Mosley in the premiere edition of Montoya’s Monday Mailbag WHERE’S RUSLAN? USMC0311- Why does it seem like Ruslan Chagaev has been "thrown under the bus," so-to-speak? The guy might be in recess, but he is still the WBA champ, regardless of the fact that Holyfield fought and beat Valuev (in the eyes of most observers) for the interim version of the WBA trinket. It seems like Ruslan has just become lost in all of that. Why do you think that is? Sadly, USMC, boxing is a “what have you done for me lately” business. Just like most fans have labeled a De La Hoya a quitter for his decision against Pacquiao or on the flipside think he is a viable fighter whenever they haven’t seen him for a year, Chagaev has been inactive and thusly thrown to the wayside. I think it’s totally unfair for fans to label Chagaev as the latest victim of “The Russian back flu”. The guy tore his Achilles. It takes a long time to come back and who knows if he will be the same. As it was, while he was active and big overseas, he hadn’t really broken through in the States. I think the inactivity combined with that factor made it easy for fans to dismiss him. Hopefully with his return in early 2009 against Carl Drummond, he will shake the rust off and then move on to duplicate his performance against Valuev and put an end to that farce. I’d be happy if he bypassed him altogether and fought the “real” interim champ, Evander Holyfield. CAN KELLY RIGHT THE SHIP? Gabe, How do you see Pavlik's career developing after the loss to Hopkins and is he and is his team dealing with the loss in the right way?  Ruthless Bastard I think taking on Marco Antonio Rubio at middleweight is definitely step in the right direction. Rubio has been stopped before, is a come forward, take 4 to give 1 kind of fighter who will go a long way towards getting Kelly’s confidence back.  Now will Rubio help Pavlik fix all the flaws that Hopkins exposed? Absolutely not.  Rubio won’t turn him all night, won’t expose his defense (and if he does it won’t matter in my opinion, and will certainly not out quick Pavlik. All that must change in the gym. I’m not one to fire the whole team after a loss but I do think Team Pavlik needs to 1) stay at middleweight as long as they can and 2) work on a larger punch selection, better footwork, and a tighter D, and 3) Admit to themselves that it wasn’t just bronchitis, the weight, and an arm injury that did Kelly wrong in November. It was a combination of a legend and a lack of diversity in his skills. As for how Kelly’s career will progress from here, it all depends on what they (Team Pavlik and HBO) want. They could make a bundle fighting the Rubio’s of the world and protect Kelly from dangerous pure boxers or they could do what they have always done and take calculated risks. I’d love to see a showdown with IBF beltholder Arthur Abraham ( I’d take Abraham, but making 160 is getting tougher and tougher for him, so anything could happen), but if they are smart, Team Pavlik might want to get their feet wet first with WBA beltholder Felix Sturm (a pure boxer who has very little power) after another confidence builder. CAN ANYONE MAKE WLAD AND VITALI EXCITING? How are the heavies going to play out this year? Is there anyone that matches up favorably with one of the Klitschkos? Who do you like in a Spaddy-Malignaggi prime v. prime? .... Just kidding Dread Do we have heavyweights anymore? Seriously, it’s ugly out there. Between Vitali and Wlad, we have two titleholders who may fight once or twice next year. We have WBA titleholder Ruslan Chagaev making his return against an undefeated but unknown fighter in Carl Drummond. Alexander Povetkin (who I think is a very exciting fighter along with having one of the most accomplished amateur pedigrees in recent memory) waiting for Wlad to take his mandatory shot at Wladimir. And then you throw in two very exciting but flawed fighters in David Haye and Chris Arreola. Not to mention Valuev, who should rematch Holyfield if there is any justice. After that, you have a lot of the ghosts of good fighters in Masakev, Lamon Brewster, and James Toney. What we’re missing (and possibly Haye and Arreola can add) is that exciting fighter who can end it all on one shot. Both those guys can do that, but on the flipside, both have shown that they can be hurt (or in Haye’s case stopped). To my eyes, it looks like more of the same with some bright spots. Haye is looking to make a move on Vitali. Bad move in my opinion. I think Haye would have more of a chance with his speed and power against Wlad’s china chin. Vitali may be older and more injury prone, but he looked great against Sam Peter. He uses his height and reach to great effect. His chin is iron, and his toughness underrated. That’s going to be too much for Haye and he really is the wrong elite heavyweight to test yourself against first time out. The matchup I am looking forward to is the proposed Arreola vs. Peter bout. That’s a perfect fight for both guys. Arreola will again have his chin tested. Peter has a shot to get back in the mix. And both guys have someone dangerous enough in front of them that they actually might come in not looking like the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. If you’re looking for clarity and excitement, however, look a few divisions below heavy. And for the record, I’d take Spaddy in a close one. If not in the ring, certainly in the parking lot after the bar is closed. IS JUANMA READY FOR THE BIG LITTLE MEN? How do you like Juan Manuel Lopez' chances against Israel Vazquez or Rafael Marquez, right now? Aficionado After seeing him destroy Daniel Ponce de Leon, I knew his power was for real. What I don’t know about Juan Manuel Lopez is how real his chin, stamina, and mental fortitude is over the long haul of a grueling war. After three brutal wars, I’d like his chances over Israel Vazquez, who tends to eat way too many shots over the course of a fight. I think at this stage, Izzy has taken too many to last the distance against a young stud like JuanMa. I think Izzy would take him to the limit but I am not sure his face would hold up if his chin did. On the other hand, I think Rafael Marquez stands a better chance with his power and boxing skills. Rafa has the boxing ability to keep the kid at bay and the power to keep him honest. I realize he lost the best of three against Izzy, but stylistically, I feel Rafa gives the kid more trouble because of his solid jab, his movement, and ring experience. But honestly, who knows what either man has left at this stage? CAN THE TORNADO SWOOP UP AND TOSS DOWN MOSLEY? What are the chances that Margarito knocks out Mosley? Who ya got? Berto or Collazo? Do you have a "West Coast Bias?" TScherr Does anyone else notice that Oscar always takes the matchup that benefits him most while Mosley always takes on Murderer’s Row? Winky, Cotto, and now Margarito. If anything, Shane has to be applauded for this. The man has nothing to prove to anyone except apparently himself. Personally, I think Margarito stops Mosley somewhere around 10. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more of the ref/corner stoppage variety. Mosley’s wheels looked squeaky against Mayorga and I just don’t think he can avoid Tony for all 12. The power, pressure, and body assault of Margarito wins this one over the long haul. Add into the mix the steroid allegations and all that will surround it and it don’t look good at all for Shane. Give me Berto in a close one. Collazo has all the tools to make it interesting. Solid boxing skills, decent pop, and a southpaw style all will make for Berto’s toughest test to date in my opinion. BUT don’t be fooled by Collazo’s spectacular KO on the undercard of Mosley/Mayorga. Russell Jordan had been knocked out in 4 of his last 7 bouts. It’s what he was there for. Berto drives me nuts. He has all the talent and skill in the world but the guy doesn’t put it all together to my liking. Like a good story, a fight should have a beginning, middle, and end. More often than not, Berto starts strong and the kind of meanders through the rest of the night. Yes, the punches are big but they come too often one at a time. And he has zero head movement.  I’m hoping that Berto finally puts it all together and lives up to the promise so many have made regarding him. I’ve lived my whole life on the West Coast, though most who meet me swear I’m from back East. I certainly don’t give a crap where a fighter is from so long as they bring it between the ropes. I have a good fighter bias. 154 OR BUST What division has the most potential to make the best fights? I say super middle. Prodigious 1 168 is as likely a division to blow up as any with Taylor, Froch, Kessler, Bute, Dirrell, and Andrade in the mix. But to me, none of those bouts scream excitement. For my money, the 154 lb division is the place to be. Alfred Angulo, James Kirkland, Sergio Martinez, Sergiy Dzinziruk, Joel Julio, Paul Williams, Vernon Forrest, and Yuri Foreman. Okay, maybe Foreman doesn’t scream excitement, but any of those other guys matched together or matched well period is grab a beer and invite some friends over worthy. By late 2009 or early 2010, you might add Margarito to the mix and that, my friend, is a frighteningly explosive division. Lightweights are right there along with the welters. It’s a great time to be a boxing fan. INJURIOUS EFFECT Hey Gabe,   Congratulations on the move to Max!   Anyway, what kind of chance do you give Collazo against Berto? I'm thinking upset. Thanks, man. I’m excited about being here. Like I said earlier, I just don’t see it. Collazo hasn’t been all that active, with just three fights in three years. The wins he has had weren’t all that spectacular when you look closer at who he was beating. Collazo has skills no doubt and certainly gave Hatton all he could handle, but I just don’t see him beating the younger, faster, stronger, but flawed, Berto. 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